You’ll see as much Austin MacPhee walking the touchline during an Aston Villa game as you will Unai Emery scratching his chin while lost in contemplation.
Arsenal’s Nicolas Jover has had enough publicity to last a lifetime, and Chelsea, who aren’t afraid to spend money, recently paid Brentford £1 million to hire their dead-ball specialist Bernardo Cueva.
Overall, it makes sense for the money to expand to set pieces as teams try to strive for little advantages in every possible direction. With the exception of penalties, set pieces have accounted for an incredible 20% of goals in the English Premier League this season.
Although Celtic has had a slightly superior set-piece xG in the league for three of the last four seasons, Rangers have had successful runs from corners and free kicks in recent years. The Ibrox team scored 21 set-piece goals in the league, including direct free kicks, in the 2022–2023 campaign. Even though Rangers’ xG from set pieces was higher than it was the year before (17.05 to 16.26), that number fell to nine goals last season.
But as December draws near, Philippe Clement must face the unsettling fact that Rangers are the only team in the Scottish Premiership without a set-piece goal.
That is a worrying statistic given that the Ibrox team is already having trouble scoring goals, having only scored 16 goals in 11 league games.
Rangers’ set-piece goals and set-piece xG per 90 during the previous five seasons are contrasted in the chart below. In other words, how much did the team outperform the opportunities they were generating in the Scottish Premiership on set pieces?
Rangers outperformed from set pieces for three seasons. This is probably due to some variation, more direct goals from free kicks, and possibly even variations in the routine and delivery. The goals have significantly decreased since previous season, even though the underlying numbers haven’t changed much.
Philippe Clement responded, “No, because I love set pieces and that is a thing of the past but also a reason, I think I played a lot of games as I scored a lot of goals from set pieces so I will not give that part,” when asked in February if the team would consider hiring a specialist coach.
Clement’s intuition was somewhat correct last season. Rangers significantly underperformed their xG of 17.05. This was despite the fact that they only managed nine goals from set pieces. They earned eight more goals based on the chances they produced and the moments they crafted.
Rangers, meanwhile, are the only team in the Premier League without a set-piece goal this season as we approach the third international break of the year.
When considering the worth of opportunities created, there is some vengeance once more. With an xG of 3.37, Clement’s team has failed to score any goals. In other words, the Ibrox team would have at least three set goals in the league if they had ended at an expected value.
Rangers’ chances from dead-ball situations, however, have decreased from 0.43 to 0.3 from the previous season. Rangers are in the middle of the pack domestically in terms of set-piece xG, but they have room to get better.
Set-pieces are a leveller, of course, but there’s no assurance that the richest or even most physically fit teams in each league will win. Having said that, a larger portion of resources should often enable the best teams to take advantage of narrow margins.
In order to prevent full-backs from crossing the pitch and maybe defending a transition assault on their wrong side, Clement was adamant about the use of outswinging corners when he joined the team. Rangers have frequently been exposed to counterattacks due to the quantity of forwards they commit at corners, even though this may seem like too small a detail to stress. Most notably, Benfica’s offensive that started with defending a corner last season resulted in the goal that eliminated Rangers from the Europa League.
That has flipped this season. Only seven of Rangers’ 65 corners in the Scottish Premiership so far have not been inswingers. The majority of delivery shares have been assigned to Vaclav Cerny (19) and James Tavernier (33) respectively.
This season, Rangers have had the league’s highest-value xG misses from set pieces:
Aberdeen, Dujon Sterling, 2-1 Ranger: 0.33xG
Kilmarnock, Cyriel Dessers, 1-0 Rangers: 0.28xG
Aberdeen, Dujon Sterling, 2-1 Rangers: 0.21xG
Kilmarnock, Robin Propper, 1-0 Rangers: 0.21xG
Rangers 2-1 Motherwell, Dujon Sterling: 0.20xG
Rangers 2-0 St Johnstone, Cyriel Dessers: 0.20xG
Rangers 1-0, Robin Propper Hibs: 0.17xG
According to the data, Rangers have not had good luck. In losses to Aberdeen and Kilmarnock, Clement’s team could have scored vital goals if they had finished at the predicted pace or just above. An unpleasant element is that they have failed to score despite generating approximately 0.5xG from set pieces in each game.
As the Belgian coach enters a pivotal month, he needs these narrow margins to work in his favour and increase the value of opportunities from dead-ball situations.
